Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Day 4, Churchill Downs, Sunday May 29, 2022

Bill Lyster · 05-30-2022, 01:45 PM

There were 44 races in the contest and one of them was a 3 horse race, so for these purposes, there were 43 races.

Using the four factor method, with the understanding that I had to make a judgment call on a couple of races where there were only 2 horse with all four factors, here is what I found.

The winner was top 4, 33 out of 43 races, or 76.7% of the time.

The exacta came in 22 out of 43 races or 51.2% of the time. A $1 box exacta costing $12 on all 43 races would costs $516 and in this case, it returned $507.30, a slight negative ROI. So for you whales out there, an almost breakeven bet, where you won money on the rebates!!!???

05-30-2022, 01:45 PM	#70
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Interesting Factoids from our contest There were 44 races in the contest and one of them was a 3 horse race, so for these purposes, there were 43 races. Using the four factor method, with the understanding that I had to make a judgment call on a couple of races where there were only 2 horse with all four factors, here is what I found. The winner was top 4, 33 out of 43 races, or 76.7% of the time. The exacta came in 22 out of 43 races or 51.2% of the time. A $1 box exacta costing $12 on all 43 races would costs $516 and in this case, it returned $507.30, a slight negative ROI. So for you whales out there, an almost breakeven bet, where you won money on the rebates!!!???