Quote:
Originally Posted by barryt
Is RDDS primed for races at 1m and a half.?
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When I worked on Synthesis, about 22 years ago, the Sartin programs could not really handle races under 5f or over 9f that well.
It seems like Ted, or someone else, has greatly improved that.
Obviously, since there are pretty few North American races at 12f, there is not going to be a large data sample to draw from, but in my personal experience, the deceleration rating does a good job of noting endurance. I like to look at deceleration and LPR and HID for long races.
Another problem with something like the Belmont Stakes is that class is probably more important than anything else. There is no rating for class. Howard said that pace was class, and that is true IMO until you get up to the graded stakes races. When it comes to graded stakes, "class" as handicappers have traditionally defined it, is pretty powerful, even more powerful than speed and pace ratings. Grade 1 winners tend to beat Grade 2 winners and so on...
And yet another factor is these are 3 year olds. There is nothing as scary to a handicapper as a rapidly improving 3 year old, they are damn near impossible to predict.
This is why I say that this is a really tough race to handicap, even though there are only 8 horses. We will know tonight whose picks for today won, but for these type of super high end races for young horses, there is no long term winning system, you have to really look at each of these races as an individual event.
Dan