Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Bel 6/11

Bill Lyster · 06-12-2022, 04:13 PM

Raceman, you can use the Search tool and just plug in Marathon Method to see all of the instruction. I have copied a few posts from 2007 just to get you started.

Richie Pizzicara posted this 15 years ago, and it is still good today.

1) We are going to work TODAY'S race as if the distance is 8f. We are going to adjust the pp lines for the horses to make them all 8f to match today's virtual distance.

Do NOT adjust the pace calls of the races. Only the final times please.

2) We are going to use 6.2 seconds (in fifths) to adjust each 1/2 furlong on pacelines to get them to the 8f distance.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 8.5f and the final time 1:42 subtract 6.2 seconds to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.3 for the 8f.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 9f and the final time is 1:48 subtract 6.2 seconds TWICE or 12.4 to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.1.

3) We are going to use the stretch call of the marathon distance races in the pp's which is 8f. We will stop those marathon races THERE.

4) Once we do the above we are then going to use POSITIONING and pace of race and Matchup the horses to find the horse that will be leading at 8f.

THAT is the horse we will bet.

** Important**
I would strongly suggest going back and reading and re reading the POSITIONING post in the 8 month update thread. THIS is vital to work these races and a clear understanding of POSITIONING is needed.

Take your time. Equalize some pacelines. Go SLOW and find the FAST horse at the mile who ALSO is closest POSITIONALLY to the lead during the race.

THIS is Jim Bradshaw's method of working marathon distance races.

Jim's thinking in these long races is that to WIN a horse has to have taken control of the race at the mile mark.

He feels there has been most of the energy exerted by the field at that stage and for someone to overcome a bunch of horses AFTER the mile mark is just too difficult to do with the horses energy having been depleted by that stage.

So he started stopping and picking the winner at the 8f point of the races. It's amazing in it's basic SIMPLICITY and POWER in my opinion.

After reading Richie's post about the method, I heard this on the local racing weekend show in March 2007.
Amazing timing for this info. Today ( 10 years ago in March 2007) on the local racing program the SoCal announcer came out with these stats.

The last 31 Big Caps - 1-1/4 mil - were won by horses that were first or second at the stretch call (i.e. the mile).

41 out of the last 44 Kentucky Derbys (these nos. may be slightly off, it took awhile to put the info into reference) were won by horses that were first or second at the mile call, with Grindstone 4th and Giamcomo 6th - forgot the 3rd non conformer.

In light of subject matter of this post, I thought this was an amazing sets of stats.

Just a clarification, use the mile time in the PPs if its shown. Do not calculate any horses time based on lengths back. You will need to adjust final times of any race without a mile call time in the PPs.

06-12-2022, 04:13 PM	#17
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,498	Raceman, you can use the Search tool and just plug in Marathon Method to see all of the instruction. I have copied a few posts from 2007 just to get you started. Richie Pizzicara posted this 15 years ago, and it is still good today. 1) We are going to work TODAY'S race as if the distance is 8f. We are going to adjust the pp lines for the horses to make them all 8f to match today's virtual distance. Do NOT adjust the pace calls of the races. Only the final times please. 2) We are going to use 6.2 seconds (in fifths) to adjust each 1/2 furlong on pacelines to get them to the 8f distance. For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 8.5f and the final time 1:42 subtract 6.2 seconds to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.3 for the 8f. For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 9f and the final time is 1:48 subtract 6.2 seconds TWICE or 12.4 to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.1. 3) We are going to use the stretch call of the marathon distance races in the pp's which is 8f. We will stop those marathon races THERE. 4) Once we do the above we are then going to use POSITIONING and pace of race and Matchup the horses to find the horse that will be leading at 8f. THAT is the horse we will bet. Important I would strongly suggest going back and reading and re reading the POSITIONING post in the 8 month update thread. THIS is vital to work these races and a clear understanding of POSITIONING is needed. Take your time. Equalize some pacelines. Go SLOW and find the FAST horse at the mile who ALSO is closest POSITIONALLY to the lead during the race. THIS is Jim Bradshaw's method of working marathon distance races. Jim's thinking in these long races is that to WIN a horse has to have taken control of the race at the mile mark. He feels there has been most of the energy exerted by the field at that stage and for someone to overcome a bunch of horses AFTER the mile mark is just too difficult to do with the horses energy having been depleted by that stage. So he started stopping and picking the winner at the 8f point of the races. It's amazing in it's basic SIMPLICITY and POWER in my opinion. After reading Richie's post about the method, I heard this on the local racing weekend show in March 2007. Amazing timing for this info. Today ( 10 years ago in March 2007) on the local racing program the SoCal announcer came out with these stats. The last 31 Big Caps - 1-1/4 mil - were won by horses that were first or second at the stretch call (i.e. the mile). 41 out of the last 44 Kentucky Derbys (these nos. may be slightly off, it took awhile to put the info into reference) were won by horses that were first or second at the mile call, with Grindstone 4th and Giamcomo 6th - forgot the 3rd non conformer. In light of subject matter of this post, I thought this was an amazing sets of stats. Just a clarification, use the mile time in the PPs if its shown. Do not calculate any horses time based on lengths back. You will need to adjust final times of any race without a mile call time in the PPs.