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I've found that you should not use times from mile races because they are too short, so anything from 8.5 furlongs and longer. I suppose you could use 8.3 f races, with appropriate adjustments to get back to a mile time, but I rarely do.
So from race 5 on Saturday the best mile times and positions from the entrants:
1 137.8; 4-4-2
2 135.9; 2-2-2
3 136.1; 5-4-3 (6.1 back at mile)
4 135.3; 7-6-4 (but 5.5 back in 4th at the mile)
5 135.0; 1-1-1
6 136.7; 5-3-4 (4.6 back in 4th
also 137.1; 4-3-2
7 135.8; 5-1-1
So the two fastest at the mile were the 5 and 7 with the 2 close behind, but both the 5 and 7 were in the lead at the mile call.
Belmont:
1 135.6; 1-1-1
2 135.6; 6-6-6 (6.6 back) or 136.8 4-4-1 - slower race,
3 136.5; 6-4-3
4 135.9; 11-11-5
5 135.6; 5-3-4 or 136.0; 4-4-2
6 135.6; 8-6-2
7 135.6; 5-5-3
8 137.2; 8-5-3 (4 back)
At the mile the 1, 3, 6 and 7 were top three, looked like lone speed for the 1; 3 closing 4-3 losing 1.4 L in the process; 6 closing 6-2 making up 2.5 L. 7 was 8 L back at mile having lost 5 since 2nd call.
Lots of horses coming from 135.6 mile races, chose closer and leader, did not see early pace pressure vs. 1 horse. RDSS had top three pretty easy here.
Race 10 10F turf.
I went back a week to see turf course times. Most routes were run in 113 of 114 or slower, but the sprints had 110 six furlong times often enough, so the best horse that could run that time happened to be the winner. If the ground could not prevent an faster early time, the early horse might do well.
Especially in races of this class I used best ever times at the mile split. they would not be ready to run at this grade, IMHO, so I used them.
1 136.3; 5-5-1, closing 2.6 to the lead
2 137.4; 7-6-2, closing 5 back to 1 back
3 141.0; 9-8-6
4 137.9; 7-6-5, closing 7 to 4.2
5 137.5; 2-2-1
6 137.6; 2-2-1
7 135.5 and 134.5; 1-1-1 and 1-1-1
8 138.6; 2-2-1
9 137.0; 6-6-4, losing 3.1 to 4 while passing some and 137.7, running 2-2-2, closing 2 to 1 back;
10 136.7; 3-3-2, gaining 4.5 to 1.5
best mile is 7, then the 1, then the 10, but I went with the 4 and 9. The best reason I can give now is that they were in a tandem at CD in a grade 1 in their last race.
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