Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
My second issue:
"Now a horse can get as Ted states a same rating of 91 in his example of (1/11 & 6/65)."
Well, I agree that if you are comparing horses on different days or distances that you should give more credit to the horse that "ran" against the greater number of horses. However, if 1/11 is meant as an approximate mathemical reduction of 6/65 that is one issue, I do not accept that both horses generated a 91% rating.
If at another day and/or distance a particular horse was best of 11, or 1/11, would not that horse for that set of circumstances get a 100% rating? So you could have the 6th of 65 horse (91%) running against a horse that was first of 11 (100%) and perhaps need to develop a way to separate them (?)
Then almost every day we see horses that work the more common distance of 4 furlongs, than work 5 furlongs, or even 6 or more furlongs, so balancing a 6/65 horse at four furlongs versus say a horse who worked one of the longer distances becomes even harder.
I know you guys are working out the bugs in this feature, but is there anything to suggest that horses that work longer distances should be upgraded when facing horses that predominantly work shorter distances.
I'd be happy to help evaluate any current avenues of thought on this subject if someone gave me some parameters to work with.
Not to put a damper on this, but all of this might go out the window if trying to make sense of how Chad Brown works his mighty stable. It seems that he rarely works them more than 4 f no matter what.
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Yes to upgrading horses working
5f+ - in progress
. Bill, you are in the testing group, so when the next update is ready for testing - have at it, your reports and thoughts welcomed!
And - all this Improvement/Fitness analysis should naturally be sensitive to one's knowledge of Trainer workout patterns, as well as other ratings from actual races which horses may have (e.g. CSR, CR, CR+, PL, PP etc) as well as CHANGES which might be occurring (equipment, Trainer, Jockey, etc). Keeps the puzzle multi-dimensional and frustrates easy answers!
Ted