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I’m leaving Monday for a week or so. While away I’ll tune in to keep up but won’t have time for any long-winded post or answers. Prior to leaving I want to get this post up.
We’ve talked about races with several contenders for this angle and incorporating it into your analysis. Any race can end up with multiple horses not just MSW. I also stated I incorporate workouts into my procedures as part of my handicapping. The last few weeks I’ve used it as a stand-alone to report data and to provide its potential. A user can use it anyway they like. Its best when separating contenders and used in a holistic approach.
How do we actually separate contenders that have these works or other contenders?
First of all, never use a single factor such as Total Energy or TPR. Their one dimensional and never will outperform a factor that contains multiple factors.
Plus, any multiple facet or Factor is only as good as its weakest component which tears down the power of the overall rating. If you’re making your own composite, one better do an awful amount of research to discover that weakest one. Additionally, sometimes less is more.
An example of a composite Factor would be BLBL. It contains the 7 Primary Factors of Pace that Sartin researched for years to come up with. Thanks Doc. It's not just one thing but a combination of 7 Factors.
Now with RDSS we have several very good composite Ratings. Their all not created equal. Now this is an area where many will be in disagreement as everyone has their own preference. If they have become attached to something they’ll die by their own sword to defend it. That’s their choice. I’m just passing along some Pro’s and Con’s.
What you should do is have an open mind and collect data on each one and the one that gets those longshots prices that are getable and possible. I won’t give you, my choice; do the work and you’ll have more confidence in your choice. That’s huge after losing a race, otherwise you’ll start zigging and zagging which is worse. Naturally there’s hardly ever is a complete agreement and just more wasted time on unchangeable minds.
Composite Factors in RDSS, not in any particular order or preference. BLBL, CR, CR+, CSR, BRIS Prime Power, BRIS Profit, RX Factors scores 1,2 & 3, APV, V/DC, Supp LS. You could say Tot Energy is a composite because it has 3 FR.’s in it, TPR 2.
A few thoughts and observations: I would not call TPR and Tot. Energy a true Composite because it's all pace and will never outperform the 7 components of BLBL. Supplementary Line Score, supplementary is subordinate to Primary or the 7 Primary Factors. Also, BLBL has some additional tweaks within it that makes it stronger than just the 7 Primary factors.
V/DC is excellent, and a composite plus contains the Match UP. How good is your pace line selection? If you use only the program picked line their wrong at times and will shew the readouts. If your exceptional at it, it’s a good Composite Factor. In fact, Tot. Energy and TPR are pace line dependent as is BLBL. Problem is its error prone even for the best. Wouldn’t be my choice but to each their own
APV is a standalone and is within CR & Cr+ so why not consider them, forget APV.
CSR is a composite of several Speed Rating placing more emphasis on recent races. Few review this and it can be faulty with a bad line, or a line rated in those 4 that shouldn’t be rated Even more so if that inappropriate line was its last line. It is still correct a high % of the time and one line can be forgiven but a horse might have two. Consider.
Bris Prime and Profit are true composites and not one dimensional. They consider class, pace, consistency etc. etc. You would be amazed how many times longshots are in its top 5. Consider.
RX Factors which are very good but are very heavily dependent of proper pace line selection with Tot. Energy. V/DC and a possible faulty CSR rating. An error here is greatly compounded. I believe CSR alone has less possible error and is a better choice.
There you have it, test these recommended ones or test them all if you want to when the new update comes, see what works best for this workout angle and or contenders or ties, particularity the ones that get the longshots in the top 4. Some of these may be good but which one captures the most winners and those big prices.
Mitch44
Last edited by Mitch44; 09-10-2022 at 09:30 AM.
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