Bill, thanks for the very clear depiction on your selection process. I googled EXDC and found that it was posted as a zip file along with Thoromation but the link did not work anymore. Would you be kind enough to zip it up and post it here for download or point me somewhere where I can pick it up?
As a contribution to this board I found something very interesting that improves my selection win %. DRF recently introduced as a beta the Moss Pace Figures in addition to the Beyer numbers. I always found Beyers figures to be useless, but I gave a shot to the Moss Pace Figures which I use to select the best PP for either Spec 1.60 or Speed Handicapper 5.0 (Charles Carroll). Selecting the best pace line to use turned things around for me from hitting 30% wins (win horse) to about 75%. So far I have done only about 40 recent races at many tracks since the Moss Pace figures have recently been available but to me this looks impressive. I wonder if it will be consistent or will drop to 30% again. I strongly believe though that the selection of the most appropriate PP to represent the horse is crucial. It appears to me that selecting the PP by the best pace line is the way to go so far. Using Speed Handicapper 5.0 that gives the Carroll speed figures seems to work really well on the selected PP by Moss Pace to pick the win horse. However the trifecta is not necessarily in the top 5. Selector 1.60 picks less winners but its trifecta is in the top 5 most of the time with the Moss paceline selection. Anyway just food for thought...please post your impressions on how we can improve on this. Perhaps I should start a new thread on this. Thanks for your help.
Quote:
Originally Posted by admin
Hi Racer100
I use an old Sartin hand entry program called EXDC
Most of the older programs,as far as I can tell
had this same feature to calculate the APV and Class ratings
I use this program
Let me show you how I used it for a horse using Spec160 and EXDC
This horse won on Saturday. I listed it as
APV. 101.0
CR. 0.70
My attachment will map out were I look for the information
I hand enter into EXDC
I use these numbers a guide to the ability of a horse
against the others in the race not as a wagering factor
what I mean is
Superstone has an APV of 101.0% to me this means in its
most current races Its been running at this level - 100% is equal
But Its Class Rating is only 0.70
This tells me that its not doing that well in those races.
This raised a red flag for me as ,for me usually my winners
rate over .90 in CR
I probably don't want to give this horse too
much help. I used its last line with its highest
ever speed rating of 84 But if it were line 3 I would use
its last line unless it had an excuse
Here is my mapped out attachment
any questions are welcome I will try to explian my method
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