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Well done Tim. I know that at PRX a fairly substantial number of winners go wire to wire, depending on who ate his or her Wheaties that day.
I made a note relating to the outliers that I mentioned, those who won races with a % med above the 90% of sample level. The lines we chose for the model were best of last three, so many times those would not be a line choice for you or even me. Things like off track races, best ever adjusted speed ratings never before equaled,etc. So what I was going to do was go back to the races where high %med horses won and see what the rest of the field was probably going to do. If a horse with 70.8 %med was racing against fields that were barely mid pack horses on their best day it wont have to run that fast early. As you know a lot of this could be determined from several screens, TPR, POH Velocity and a few more. In any event there were only five outlier % meds and I will check the races for the factors just mentioned.
As always, thanks for your input.
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