Quote:
Originally Posted by kahunab
Hi,
I am currently out of town and circulation. If you want we can connect next week some time and I will try to answer your questions.
Dick
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Dick,
You're an extremely kind guy, thanks. I ordered his book. I have a strong
statistical background after many years of financial database programming.
I think I'm misunderstanding your framing here in your answer: 4th lowest and 3rd highest?
So, 10 speed ratings: 80,82,84,(86),88,90,92,(94),96,98. 4th lowest is 86 and 3rd highest 94.
Median is 89, makes the standard deviation roughly 6 points. So, in the 83-95 likely range.
(The 10 race sample is admittedly extreme here. Think of a 2yr. old to 3yr horse, in his 3rd year.
However, it's easier to see this way).
I suggest a different statistical approach. I know the most likely range is in the last 3 speed numbers.
So, 98,96,94 plus the 98. Here, median value is 97, standard deviation is is roughly 1.7. My research on
estimating speed figures ranges over the years says this is more reasonable place to hang your hat ...
big nod to both you and The Hat.