Let's look at another one which is rather similar but just a bit different. We have 15 Quirin Speed points which would indicate a Neutral race, but is it? Of our 5 win candidates, the 3 has 7 early speed points nobody else is close. He also has the best 4-Score and 2nd RX3. Even though he is not an arrow horse, his Leverage Pace score is close and I would consider him as the Key. If not him I would probably go contra energy with the 5. That is my original premise.
Again here we see the 3 as the #1Early, 1,2 in FW and FX. My 5 horse has good scores across and is the #1 NP Late horse. Both horses have good balance with energy expenditure.
Now the segments screen. Notice again the huge 1st fraction advantage. My 5 looks ok but I am leaning more toward the 3. His pattern looks strong to me.
Now the New Pace screen. We have a E7 at the top of the speed graph. He has a 71% Accumulation score which indicates he can get the lead. The 6 horse is a S1 which means he will be back a ways but probably close with some speed. He certainly is not a Early horse. The horse with the 2nd most early speed points is the 7 with 5 ESP and he doesn’t look fast enough to keep up. We basically have a lone Early scenario. Lets look at how it ran.
So our 3 broke as we expected and wired the field. Our arrow horse the 5 ran 2nd and we would have been ok with naming him the key horse. The 6 horse that New Pace called Early but was really late, ie was 8th at the 1st call, but was the 2nd fastest horse finished 3rd.
I hope you see what I mean by pattern recognition. I try not to get number blind and get into my mathematical bent. I.E., he is two points stronger here, has 4% better energy here, etc. You all know what I mean. As a friend of mine said, “We get into measuring with a micrometer and a horse race is cutting with a chain saw.”
Happy Handicapping! We can look at more patterns down the road.
Dick