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How new pace can point you at exactas and other things
Dick Werpy planted this seed about 10 days ago so I ran with it.
I have a 269 race sample of races from PRX, MVR, FG, GP, TAM, SA and DMR, usually running more than one or more days consecutively.
It is important to state that this study only relates to the New Pace screen which can show different graphs, and depending on how you sort the horses, the order in which each horse appears on the sort.
This study is based on the Adjusted Speed Rating option, NOT the Trackmaster Rating option found on the New Pace screen.
When you access the NEW PACE screen, choose the HIGH option, NOT the LOW option. I got much better results using the HIGH option.
Record the top 4 horses in the order shown on this screen and then compare it to the race results. In 269 races the exacta was won by the first three horses on this screen almost 30% of the time. The exacta was won by the first four horses on this screen 49.8% of the time!! The top five horses won the exacta 62.8% of the time.
If you choose the first four option, the box exacta costs $12 but many of the races will not return $12 so you need to build an exacta return matrix to see which combinations will break even or better. And along this train of thought you should determine your minimum acceptable return if you bet combinations that will return more than the minimum bet.
I suppose you could use this idea for multiple race horizontal wagers like pick 3 -4-5, etc. but again, bet cost vs return needs to be studied.
Bill
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