|
Don, I wouldn’t call a soft race neutral because neutral is the visual pace bias, not the pressure. A soft POR is still early, it just does not look aggressive because no one is applying pressure. It is controlled pace, not balanced pace, while true neutral shows up when the visual bias indicates both early and late can win depending on how the race unfolds.
Where your thinking is right is in the model. In softer races you should see Prime Power outperform Profit Line in win percentage because the race allows raw ability and position to hold. As POR rises that relationship should flip. Prime Power becomes less reliable and Profit Line starts capturing more winners because it reflects how the race actually finishes. If your model does not show that shift, then the read or the segmentation is off. Hope this helps!
|