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Thank you Dan, I genuinely appreciate that. I do not do graphics professionally, this is just me trying to help others visualize what NewPace is attempting to show underneath the surface of the race.
Honestly, I do not see what I am doing as opposing Jim Bradshaw’s Match Up at all. In many ways I think they are asking the same core question: can the early horse survive the pressure being applied to it? Jim focused heavily on race interaction and survivability and I completely agree with that approach.
Where NewPace has helped me personally is in quantifying and visualizing the projected stress environment of the race before evaluating who survives it. POR, visual pace bias, EPR, V/DC, deceleration, and energy distribution are all ways of measuring the structure Jim often read instinctively through the Match Up.
One thing I have found is that not all visually contentious races are truly pressured. Sometimes the field looks loaded with speed, but only one horse can actually attain position comfortably. Other times a horse that appears early is actually a sustained pressure absorber internally and can survive a race shape that looks destructive on paper.
So to me, this is not Bradshaw versus NewPace. If anything, I think they are speaking the same language from different angles.
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