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AwesomeAgain,
Very impressive presentation and visualization work. I genuinely mean that. The concepts are interesting too, especially the focus on race shape, pressure, survivability, and energy distribution.
But as a bettor, I always come back to the practical side of things.
A few honest questions:
How is “hidden stress” objectively measured and validated?
Can two users independently look at the same race and consistently arrive at the same conclusions, or is much of it interpretive?
What specific race types has this approach shown the strongest ROI in over large samples?
How does this approach handle odds and value? A horse can survive the projected race shape and still be an underlay.
Has this been tested over thousands of races with documented profitability, or is it mainly an explanatory framework for understanding races better?
Also, where does race filtering come into the process? One thing I’ve learned over the years is that many approaches can explain races well after the fact, but long term profit often comes more from selecting the right races than from deeper analysis of every race.
Not criticizing at all. I actually think a lot of the pace pressure concepts are very valid. I’m just always interested in the difference between a framework that explains races versus one that consistently beats the wagering market.
Thanks, Tom
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