Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmy R
Guys, I had a couple races at Parx today that got me thinking about how much weight to give a strong RDSS ranking when the paceline or pace matchup may be questionable.
In one race, the horse was very strong on BL/BL, Rx, Primary and TPR, but there was another horse with a very strong Early profile. The top-ranked horse ended up chasing that pace, opened up a big lead, and then emptied in the stretch.
In another race, I had a horse that ranked very strongly across several screens, but afterward I started wondering whether the selected paceline may have made him look better than what he could realistically reproduce against today’s field.
So I have two questions:
Paceline validation:
When BL/BL, Rx, Primary and TPR all strongly agree on one horse, how much do you go back through that horse’s recent races to make sure the selected paceline is truly representative? Especially in cheaper claiming races, do you do an extra reality check on class, distance, surface, track and surrounding form before making that horse a key or Win/Place play?
Pace pressure:
If your top BL/BL/Rx horse is Early or EP and another horse looks capable of forcing a very fast first or second fraction, how much do you downgrade the top-ranked horse? Is that enough to pass a short-priced favorite, or do you mainly use the pace pressure to bring in a contra-energy horse underneath or alongside?
I’m also trying to get more disciplined about Doc’s old idea of passing Win/Place wagers when the odds fall below about 5/2.
Curious how the more experienced guys here handle these situations.
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The core issue for me is that a strong RDSS ranking tells us what a horse looks like if the paceline is valid and today’s race allows him to reproduce it. That’s why I don’t think the rankings should be looked at in a vacuum.
Before I trust them, I want to understand the Race Demand. Is this race unpressured and likely to favor Early or EP, or is there enough pressure to make it more favorable to a Presser or Sustained horse?
Then I look for convergence. From the testing we’ve done, I’ve found that when V/DC, Profit Line and Rx3 start agreeing on the same horse, that deserves serious consideration. But the paceline still has to make sense for today’s distance, surface, class and expected pace.
To me, rankings identify the contenders, but Race Demand helps determine which contender is most likely to reproduce that performance today.