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Originally Posted by Jimmy R
Thanks Mike and Brian. That helps a lot.
The biggest thing I’m taking from both replies is that I need to stop looking at the rankings as the final answer and first ask whether today’s Race Demand and the selected paceline give the horse a realistic chance to reproduce those rankings.
Mike, your point about demanding a friendly F1/F2 scenario even more strongly when the Early horse is short-priced really hit home after the Parx race I was referring to.
Brian, I also like the idea of looking at Race Demand first, then using the rankings and convergence to identify which contender is most likely to reproduce its line today. That gives me a better framework than just looking for the horse with the most #1s.
I’m going to start paying more attention to those two checks before I call anything a key or a Win/Place play.
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Exactly. IMO, that’s one of the reasons I love NewPace. Before I even start worrying about rankings, NewPace is already giving me a pretty good idea of how the race is likely to play out and what kind of energy distribution the race may reward.
Once I have a feel for the Race Demand, then the rankings start to mean something. Now I’m not just asking who has the most #1s. I’m asking whether the paceline I selected actually represents something that horse has a realistic chance of reproducing today.
That’s also why I pay attention to FW and V/DC. I look at FW as the adjudicator and V/DC as the underwriter. They help me decide whether what I’m seeing in the rankings actually makes sense within today’s race.
So for me, it’s Race Demand first and then convergence. I’m trying to find the horse whose paceline and rankings fit the race I believe is about to happen, not simply the horse that looks best on a rankings screen.