Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 11-04-2026, 01:04 PM

This is the Juvenile fillies and there were NO foreign entries. Unlike many of the foreign turf entrants none of the 12 entrants had more than 4 races, in fact only 2 horses had 4 races, neither placed in the top 4.

The winning horse was the 10-5-8-6 in that order. Only 4 horses in this race had won a graded stake, the 2, 5, 8, 10. Three of these filled out the top 3 spots. The 2 won a G2, the 5 and 10 had won a G1, as had the unplaced 11. The 3-6-7-9 had not done well in graded races. The 6 and 9 were still maidens.

None of the US fillies had run against males in any of their races.

The TM New Pace speed ratings were the 7 (96), the 5 and 10 (both 92) and the 1, 8 and 11 (all 90). The Early NP was 10-2 and the Late was 8-1.

The adjusted speed ratings were the 10 (84), the 3 (81), the 2 and 8 (both 80), and the 5 (79). The NP early was7-5 and the late was 8-1.

In this race you get the win and place with the TM ratings. And the top 3 all won graded races with the winner having won all three of its races, the first two of which would be considered BIG WIns widening lead thru the finish.
Also, the win and place horses were 2 of the 3 that won grade 1 races.

11-04-2026, 01:04 PM	#5
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,509	BC 7 Thursday, Juvenile Fillies This is the Juvenile fillies and there were NO foreign entries. Unlike many of the foreign turf entrants none of the 12 entrants had more than 4 races, in fact only 2 horses had 4 races, neither placed in the top 4. The winning horse was the 10-5-8-6 in that order. Only 4 horses in this race had won a graded stake, the 2, 5, 8, 10. Three of these filled out the top 3 spots. The 2 won a G2, the 5 and 10 had won a G1, as had the unplaced 11. The 3-6-7-9 had not done well in graded races. The 6 and 9 were still maidens. None of the US fillies had run against males in any of their races. The TM New Pace speed ratings were the 7 (96), the 5 and 10 (both 92) and the 1, 8 and 11 (all 90). The Early NP was 10-2 and the Late was 8-1. The adjusted speed ratings were the 10 (84), the 3 (81), the 2 and 8 (both 80), and the 5 (79). The NP early was7-5 and the late was 8-1. In this race you get the win and place with the TM ratings. And the top 3 all won graded races with the winner having won all three of its races, the first two of which would be considered BIG WIns widening lead thru the finish. Also, the win and place horses were 2 of the 3 that won grade 1 races.