Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulator
I've heard from several different places that the Trackmaster numbers aren't very good. I know a lot of people that are disappointed with them, so they won't use them. They use something else.
How do you feel about this? In your opinion are they inferior, slightly inferior or are they superior numbers?
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Steve,
I presume the raw data about what happened in horses' past performances is identical, coming from Equibase equally for all data providers, although I have seen a DRF final time of 1:12.2 (fifths) reported by TrackMaster as 1:12.6 (tenths) when the actual final time was 1:12.55 (hundredths). In this example (due to DRF rounding down to the nearest fifth), I'd say the TrackMaster reported data was more accurate.
Aside from raw data, later Sartin programs use DTV and ITV, supplied by TrackMaster, and I have no personal complaint with these numbers, nor the way they are calculated. However, I imagine only a (say) hundred race comparison of the same variant data from different vendors would even approach a fair response as to whether one vendor's variants worked to adjust raw data better or worse than another's, and even then we don't simply wager on the top ranked horses, we seek value.
I have yet to see any study, on any basis other than anecdotal, that proves that another vendor's data is superior to TrackMaster's, in the aggregate. I would welcome, though, such a serious study, comparing the output from different software using, for example, HDW, BRIS and TrackMaster data.
I think it matters most how any given software program manipulates the supplied data, more than the particular data itself. And further, I've observed more than several individuals write to me saying Speculator (for example) failed to get a winner into a bettable position when either I myself won the same race or had others write glowingly about the same race, having used different pacelines, omitted a non-contender, or forgiven a particular horse's apparent failing. After raw data, and software manipulation of that data, comes the individual's interpretation of all that, then wager selection, and I think it's in those final steps where success lies.
Steve, in short, I have good faith in TrackMaster's data, though your mileage may vary. Ultimately, the proof will lie in the pari-mutuel results.
yours,
Ted