Quote:
Originally Posted by socantra
Joe,
If you just want a quickie rundown on how the numbers work, I'll just give it a shot.
They are based on a 100 point scale, with a fifth of a second = 1 point = 1 length, the old DRF SR standard. The three compoments are "Early Pace Rating" (EPR), "Final Fraction Rating" (FFR) and "Total Pace Rating" (TPR).
The EPR is based on the 2nd call for both sprints and routes. The 100 point standard for sprints is 44 seconds flat. For routes it is 69 seconds flat. Points are awarded based on how much slower or faster the horse runs then that.
If the horse is leading the race and the time for the 2nd call is 45 seconds flat, you subtract 1 second (5 points) from 100, and the EPR is 95. If a horse was running 2 lengths back in the same race, he would get an EPR of 93.
The FFR is different depending on the length of the race. At six furlongs, the 100 point standard is 22 seconds flat. You subtract the second call from the final time and compare it with a 22 second final fraction.
Lets say the race above went on to finish in a minute and ten, or 70 seconds flat, and our two horses finnished in a dead heat for first. Subtract 45 from 70 and you get 25 seconds, three seconds or 15 fifths slower than 22 seconds. So the FFR for the race would be 85. That would also be the FFR for the 1st horse.
The horse that was 2 lengths back at the second call though, made up those two lengths, so he ran faster than the pace of the race. His FFR would be 85 + the 2 lengths he gained, or 87. To get the TPR, you just add the two numbers, so the final result would be:
-----------EPR FFR TPR
Horse 1 - 95 85 180
Horse 2 - 93 87 180
It's an amazingly simple construct, and almost everyone can see all sorts of problems with it, but it works and has been proven to work for a number of years now.
Dick
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Dick has it nailed.
He is dead on when he says it's power comes from matching the epr/ffr to what's winning at your track. That is also stated quite clearly in PMTR.
Example:
From YESTERDAY at Philly - 2 6.5f non maiden races. winning epr/ffr from the result charts RAW
92-88 = 180 "difference" -4
89-83 = 172 "difference" -6
Fast forward to today's 1st at Philly posted before the race runs in selections. same lines as used TPR numbers
2- 90-85.8 = 175.8 "difference" -4.2
4- 90.4 - 84.1 = 174.5 "difference" -6.3
6- 90.0 - 84.7 = 174.7 "difference" -5.3
8- 87.6 - 85.9 = 173.5 "difference" -1.7
ok who is the ONLY horse NOT fitting the WIN parameters?
The #8 who is the FAVORITE on the morning line. NO shot for the win according to this if you believe it.
He does become a SERIOUS threat for the place as the counter energy horse. he runs 2nd.
Dick has this whole thing nailed man. It is not the total(though it certainly helps). It is the easy to see "difference" between epr/ffr that brings out its true power when matched to a track profile.
Richie