Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

alydar_ David · 07-04-2007, 11:32 PM

Hi Jim,

Here's a reprint of a post I wrote several eons ago.

Please note, this is for win wagering only.

Also note, this is not for exotics. For exotic wagering you need to keep the high probability, low odds horse in your bets. You also need to keep him in your multi-race wagers -- Daily Doubles, Pick 3s, etcetera. Whether you elect to play the multi-wager or not due to how much chalk you have is another matter entirely and won't be broached here.

Additionally, when you "hide" a horse sometimes the sort changes. For example, a horse that was listed fourth on BL/BL (assuming five horses listed) may jump up to second (not third, as you would logically assume) after you "hide" the low odds top horse.

And "hiding" doesn't work at places like MTH or CRC where chalk rules.
Be careful with your application. I rarely "hide" anymore, but that's up to the individual.

In an event here's the reprint:

Wagercapping with flexibility.

Here's the approach I've been using lately.

1) Endeavor to get down to three horses you think can win the race.
Sometimes I can't narrow it down past four or even five. Sometimes I
can only see two horses with a real shot. Remember, if the horse has
no chance of winning he's not a real overlay; he's a false overlay
and I don't want those. I win horses that can win, then I'll look for
price.

Okay, so assume we are down to three horses. Let's assume none of
these are "Lost in the Fog" types you wouldn't bet against.

2) Bet the top choice if he's 5/2 or more providing you have a second
choice or third choice paying 5-1. Bet them both to win.

3) If two of your three choices are under 5/2 then pass the race,
unless your other choice is 10-1 or more. In that case bet the other
choice to win and place.

For example, in the second race at AQU today I liked #5, #1 and #3 in
order.
At two minutes to post these were the odds:
#5 1.7 to 1
#1 17 to 1
#3 1.7 to 1

Heh, I just noticed they all have a "1" and "7," maybe I should buy a
lotto ticket?
Anyway, the only bet here for me is the #1 to Win and Place at 17 to
1.

Result: 3-2-4. Okay, I lost this one, but you get the idea.

----

Here's another example using a different situation. Suppose you like
A, B and C in order. At two minutes to post (or using morning line,
if that's your preference) suppose the odds are:

A 4-1
B 3-1
C 7-1

Here I'd bet A and C to win.

---

Suppose you like C, D and E to win, but you think C is a legitimate
favorite and you don't want to bet against him. Say the odds are:

C 2-1
D 15-1
E 14-1

I'd hedge the chalk here. By that I mean I'd bet enough on him that
I'll break even if he wins. I don't really like doing this, but it
beats ripping up tickets when the obvious winner is staring you in
the face. This probably happens two or three times at most on a ten
race card and usually only on weekends.

I'd bet like this for every $10 multiple:

$4 Win on C
$3 Win on D
$3 Win on E

That way I'd break even if C wins, but stand to make some nice dough
if D or E pull off the upset.

---

How do you handle "Lost in the Fog" type horses? Generally, if
there's a 3/5 shot in the race hedging won't work as your anticipated
ROI will be too small even if you do hit a longer price. In that case
I play Pick3 or Pick4s and small trifecta tickets for $2: C/ D-E/ D-E
and a straight superfecta ticket for a dollar: C-D-E-F.

Personally, I make more with Pick3s than any other exotic bet. I
mostly spend $8 a bet and go like this: A-B/ A-B/ A-B. It's a great
feeling when you hit three or four of these rolling babies and the
cash doesn't hurt either. On the other hand you'll be experiencing a
lot more "2 out of 3" misses than hits. So, be prepared for it.
That's another reason I like to only bet them for $1. The $8 doesn't
hurt, but sometimes you can catch $300 or $400 if a couple of bombs
come in. Even when you don't have price horses the takeout is so low
the payoff is generally better than a parlay.

---

What do you do at place like BM where there are five horse fields?
Mostly, I pass a lot of races.

---

None of this is carved in stone, but it might give you some ideas to
use in your own pari-mutuel wars. :>)

07-04-2007, 11:32 PM	#5
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Hi Jim, Here's a reprint of a post I wrote several eons ago. Please note, this is for win wagering only. Also note, this is not for exotics. For exotic wagering you need to keep the high probability, low odds horse in your bets. You also need to keep him in your multi-race wagers -- Daily Doubles, Pick 3s, etcetera. Whether you elect to play the multi-wager or not due to how much chalk you have is another matter entirely and won't be broached here. Additionally, when you "hide" a horse sometimes the sort changes. For example, a horse that was listed fourth on BL/BL (assuming five horses listed) may jump up to second (not third, as you would logically assume) after you "hide" the low odds top horse. And "hiding" doesn't work at places like MTH or CRC where chalk rules. Be careful with your application. I rarely "hide" anymore, but that's up to the individual. In an event here's the reprint: Wagercapping with flexibility. Here's the approach I've been using lately. 1) Endeavor to get down to three horses you think can win the race. Sometimes I can't narrow it down past four or even five. Sometimes I can only see two horses with a real shot. Remember, if the horse has no chance of winning he's not a real overlay; he's a false overlay and I don't want those. I win horses that can win, then I'll look for price. Okay, so assume we are down to three horses. Let's assume none of these are "Lost in the Fog" types you wouldn't bet against. 2) Bet the top choice if he's 5/2 or more providing you have a second choice or third choice paying 5-1. Bet them both to win. 3) If two of your three choices are under 5/2 then pass the race, unless your other choice is 10-1 or more. In that case bet the other choice to win and place. For example, in the second race at AQU today I liked #5, #1 and #3 in order. At two minutes to post these were the odds: #5 1.7 to 1 #1 17 to 1 #3 1.7 to 1 Heh, I just noticed they all have a "1" and "7," maybe I should buy a lotto ticket? Anyway, the only bet here for me is the #1 to Win and Place at 17 to 1. Result: 3-2-4. Okay, I lost this one, but you get the idea. ---- Here's another example using a different situation. Suppose you like A, B and C in order. At two minutes to post (or using morning line, if that's your preference) suppose the odds are: A 4-1 B 3-1 C 7-1 Here I'd bet A and C to win. --- Suppose you like C, D and E to win, but you think C is a legitimate favorite and you don't want to bet against him. Say the odds are: C 2-1 D 15-1 E 14-1 I'd hedge the chalk here. By that I mean I'd bet enough on him that I'll break even if he wins. I don't really like doing this, but it beats ripping up tickets when the obvious winner is staring you in the face. This probably happens two or three times at most on a ten race card and usually only on weekends. I'd bet like this for every $10 multiple: $4 Win on C $3 Win on D $3 Win on E That way I'd break even if C wins, but stand to make some nice dough if D or E pull off the upset. --- How do you handle "Lost in the Fog" type horses? Generally, if there's a 3/5 shot in the race hedging won't work as your anticipated ROI will be too small even if you do hit a longer price. In that case I play Pick3 or Pick4s and small trifecta tickets for $2: C/ D-E/ D-E and a straight superfecta ticket for a dollar: C-D-E-F. Personally, I make more with Pick3s than any other exotic bet. I mostly spend $8 a bet and go like this: A-B/ A-B/ A-B. It's a great feeling when you hit three or four of these rolling babies and the cash doesn't hurt either. On the other hand you'll be experiencing a lot more "2 out of 3" misses than hits. So, be prepared for it. That's another reason I like to only bet them for $1. The $8 doesn't hurt, but sometimes you can catch $300 or $400 if a couple of bombs come in. Even when you don't have price horses the takeout is so low the payoff is generally better than a parlay. --- What do you do at place like BM where there are five horse fields? Mostly, I pass a lot of races. --- None of this is carved in stone, but it might give you some ideas to use in your own pari-mutuel wars. :>)