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Step 3. Early (E) or other than early (OTE)
Too many earlies competing for the lead, out they go. Not enough earlies—then I have a problem that has to be addressed. Can the lone early, or the faster of two earlies—wire the race? Sometimes I say yes, other times no. It can be a difficult problem and the answer isn’t always evident—but I have to make a decision here one way or
the other.
Step 4. If E, eliminate the OTEs, if OTE eliminate the Es
When eliminating Es I’m careful not to eliminate horses who can also run EP. The same is true for the OTEs. Some of these kinds of horses can also go wire-to-wire. A quick look at the PPs can usually tell you one-way or the other.
Step 5. Matchup the contenders
I look at the remaining horses either in the form or in RDSS and compare them line for line—one to the other. Sometimes it’s fairly apparent who is best and other times it isn’t so clear. This is the hardest part of the process in my opinion and takes la lot of practice. Still other times it’s a big fat guess--that's when I usually pass. But
sometimes it’s easy, and that’s when it’s fun.
Race #10 MTR
The first thing you notice (1st screen shot) is five speed horses. But three of those horses are route speed. The 1 horse has two lines. One is from 9 races back where he showed two good races on the front end and the other is a more recent race reflecting what seems to be an early presser style that he's changed too in recent races.
I eliminated the route horses, and decided the pace would be set by the 4 and not the 1. (Screen shot #2) So is the race going to run E or OTE? Now I must ask myself this very important question: can the four go wire-to-wire? I decided no. The 4 cannot wire the race. For one thing he didn’t hold on very well last time when faced with pressure. These decisions aren’t always right but you have to start somewhere--and you have to make them. My decision was OTE. Don’t ask me for a better explanation that that. It's just the way I felt. So the next step is to eliminate the Es and that leaves me with this: (Screen shot #3)
At this point the winner should stick out like a sore thumb, but I didn’t see it. Now I don’t consider all of the horses shown to be contenders. So what I do is eliminate the slow ones I don’t think can compete, and then look at who is left so my screen will now look like this: (Screen shot # 4)
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