|
Rich/Jim:
In an honest effort to try and understand the final analysis and win selection for the race in question and as it relates to the “power move” I would like to offer you my thinking and please tell me if and where I am wrong.
I can not see directly from the power/pace lines chosen how the 4 horse is better then the 5 horse outright. But, as to the Match Up, if the 5 horse goes after the race pace horse (#1) as he should by the half mile of the race (being that he is an early presser) he should be negatively affecting his ability to finish. That is the #1 pace horse is faster to the ½-mile then the #5 horse and the later will be using himself up trying to catch him. In the mean time the #4 horse whom has shown ability to come off the pace while making a power move against today’s projected half mile of 110.4 will just blow right by the #5 horse who would probably still have an in the money finish.
Even if I am so lucky to be somewhat right as to my above thinking on this subject I have no confidence that I could think so clearly cold.
Jim mentioned as he explained the “Power Move” for the #4 horse that he usually likes better “power moves” but since the horse was stretching out in today’s race that he should win. If possible can we have an example of a preferred type of “Power Move?” The preferred type of power move can then be used as a model of what to look for while also providing some guidance in which way it can best be shaded to accept something like the # 4 horse had.
Thanks to you and “The Hat” for all that has been graciously offered already,
Robert
|