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Rich:
Just one suggestion if possible. Why not keep the responses and work-ups by us separate from your post in which you give us the races with corresponding work-ups. This will minimize confusion and give some that may be slower an opportunity to respond.
Anyway here goes:
Saratoga race 1; I agree that it could be won by an OTE since 7 out of the 9 runners are early type runners.
The win contenders that you have selected are the only off the pace types and I used 22.0 and 45.4 to separate them (all times in 5ths).
Horse #1 shows better and more races at the 45.4 half mile time as shown back in race #7 and race #5, and even somewhat in race #3.
Horse #8 shows only one competitive race at the 45.4 half-mile time, race #2, where he lost ever so little ground in the stretch to the winner.
As to horse #1 I would say that the race 7 back shows that he can run at the projected pace for these two contenders since he was at the 2nd position throughout the 5F race. He even gained lengths on the leader in the stretch after having fallen back some through out the race, and all in 45.2. In the 5th race back against a faster first ¼ of 21.3 and the preferred 45.4 half mile or less he had a very big Power Move with 2 moves and a pick up of 7 lengths on the leader and winning while going away at 3.5L.
Win choice #1 Cool The Economy.
Thanks,
Robert
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