Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

mufasa · 08-20-2007, 08:31 AM

Response to post #9

Thanks Bill for your very useful big win on the lead test. This proves what has been said so many times before especially by “The Hat” and Doc Sartin and others as to this often seen occurrence.

You know in your example with the #10 horse, Quick Switch Jimmy, the equalized-normalized-adjusted pace call times are so misleading that they are rendered useless IMO. According to the data on races 5 & 6 for horse #10 one could be led to believe that in a sprint (today’s 7F) in could win after a 46.1 (5ths). The first ¼-mile times are similarly distorted as to win potential at adjusted times. If you look at the original data a win off of anything less then a 48.1 is not happening as of the last 10 pace lines.

I have no confidence working with the equalized-normalized-adjusted pace call times especially as to the Match Up methodology but they seem to do well as to the RDSS/Spec160 BLBL outputs. The BLBL will get you winners in all price ranges but my favorite of course is the bombs that come in every once in-a-while. For example, Del Mar had such a bomb just yesterday in the Summer Stakes contest ($48 dollar winner). There must be something in that good old chaos math that makes everything considered just right. Thank you Doc!!!!

Robert

08-20-2007, 08:31 AM	#10
mufasa Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 310	Response to post #9 Thanks Bill for your very useful big win on the lead test. This proves what has been said so many times before especially by “The Hat” and Doc Sartin and others as to this often seen occurrence. You know in your example with the #10 horse, Quick Switch Jimmy, the equalized-normalized-adjusted pace call times are so misleading that they are rendered useless IMO. According to the data on races 5 & 6 for horse #10 one could be led to believe that in a sprint (today’s 7F) in could win after a 46.1 (5ths). The first ¼-mile times are similarly distorted as to win potential at adjusted times. If you look at the original data a win off of anything less then a 48.1 is not happening as of the last 10 pace lines. I have no confidence working with the equalized-normalized-adjusted pace call times especially as to the Match Up methodology but they seem to do well as to the RDSS/Spec160 BLBL outputs. The BLBL will get you winners in all price ranges but my favorite of course is the bombs that come in every once in-a-while. For example, Del Mar had such a bomb just yesterday in the Summer Stakes contest ($48 dollar winner). There must be something in that good old chaos math that makes everything considered just right. Thank you Doc!!!! Robert