Quote:
Originally Posted by froggy
Turbulator,
I know you asked this question of Bill, but I can't help myself, I am going to give you my answer that has been very successful for me.
Haw 24 Feb race #3:
Bud Symonds pace line was from an off track (gd).
Whenever I use an off track pace line I lose almost every time.
What does the BL/BL and VDC look like after you use a different pace line from a ft?
|
Froggy, I've posted a screen shot of the adjusted speed ratings for the 6 horse. Which line (if any) would you pick?
The first line, which you noticed (and I overlooked) was from a "good" track with an 85 speed rating. [One thing I'm very unclear of is why so many "off" tracks get such high speed ratings. I've always looked at sloppy tracks as a fast track.]
Anyway, I originally asked Bill about this because that 85 is the horse's highest speed rating (by 3 points) in
all of his PPs. I remember (vaguely) him saying something about being very careful about using a lifetime high number--or something to that effect--so that's why I posted my original question. I guess I could rephrase it by asking what he would do with that line if it was from a good track instead of an off one. Would he use it, discard it, or discard the horse?
I then compared that speed rating to the original unadjusted TM speed rating and I saw that he earned an 86, which is kind off the chart vis-a-vis his other "original" speed ratings. So I was wondering...was that last line a fluke?
I know Bill doesn't look at original numbers, so I did just did it as a kind of check. Basically, I'm just trying to learn how "you guys" pick pace lines Sartin style, so while practicing matching up races, I also started looking at them from a Sartin point of view--and comparing contenders, pace lines, results, etc. This situation caught my eye, so I just kinda threw it out there.
But because I felt this line might be aberrant, I also posted a shot of BL/BL with him eliminated. Bottom line: if you use that last line he ranks number 1, and if you use
any other line he ranks last...once again reaffirming that pace line selection is all important.