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Greetings Guys...........
I think we've all been down the "pars" route (!!), either for contender purposes or to adjust pacelines. Or both. My opinion is that pars almost have the opposite effect on paceline adjustments -making things less clear. A lot of winners win because they exceed par in some portion of the race. And when you adjust to those pars, you slow down that very element.
Like most of you, I've spent many late nights trying to satisfy in my mind just what the most effective way is in dealing with these questions. Or put another way, I had to verify for myself that Howard's concepts were they way to go. And the basic concept (in the Par articles mentioned above) is that horses don't run to man made pars, they run based on the today's contention and today's energy level. And every race is different. So after getting contenders and pacelines, we then adjust using the dream race of the given contenders (pacelines). And if done correctly, that will reveal who has the best chance to win.
The next question would be "how do I do it? " But really, that whole process is in most Sartin programs starting back with Energy and maybe earlier.
Your thoughts....??
Chuck
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