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Bill:
As both a poker player and horse player I know exactly what Chris Ferguson is talking about. Interestingly enough I find it much easier to do what Chris writes when I play poker and as a result I have been a winning poker player for all 5 years that I've played. However in horse racing one needs to keep more detailed records to determine specific reasons as to what is causing the recent adversity. For example, I have only recently started tracking the performance of my "top three" picks under different conditions. I find that when every entry in the field has 3 or more pacelines, the winner appears in my top 3 nearly 60 percent of the time, and the winner is one of my five contenders over 90 percent of the time. Compare this to races where several horses have less than 3 lines and my top 3 win rate drops to less than 40 percent. Despite this I continued to play each race the same way refusing to realize that I can instantly improve my performance by only focusing on this subset of races. There are even more subtle factors as well that effect one's performance, and at certain times of the year these factors all seem to line up and put you at a serious disadvantage. Look at several fall cards in Kentucky and New York that are filled with lightly raced 2 year olds or multiple horses trying to turf or route for the first time, and upon closer analysis you can see that these are situations not conducive to winning. That occasional $40.00 win skews your thinking into beleiving that there is a lot of value in these races, when in reality the statistics don't bare this out as my hit rate is just not good enough.
I have made a commitment to myself this year to analyze more closely the situations where I play best and worst just as I do in poker. I have already seen positive results in a small sampling, and this is an encouraging start. I also have tried to "re-program" my mind to stop chasing "value" for the sake of making a score, and now am trying to improve my skills of matching horses and picking the one "regardless of price" that best fits the pace conditions. You get more winners and a better ROI when you avoid being mechanical in approach. This is the secret to playing winning poker and is the ultimate means of winning at racing.
Hang in there and give yourself some time to sort things out in your mind. Play races on paper for awhile and analyze the possible reasons you made the wrong or right decision. I have been doing this lately and find some interesting patterns forming. As Richie says, pattern recognition is key.
Neil
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