Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Baffalator · 10-23-2005, 02:38 PM

There are many unknowns concerning weather and final field makeups. However, I've spent several days going through the Racing Form advance and reading Mazur's Crushing The Cup.

Beyer numbers and Racing Form analysis are interesting reading. The DRF and Bloodhorse are also sources of information.

This is a rough breakdown by race of horses of interest. Much work remains to make final choices etc.

The DISTAFF gives me three horses of interest. Ashado the favorite. Capeside Lady Pletchers other horse who LOVES THE MUD. Sweet Symphony the overlooked 3 yr who also likes off going.

The Juvenille has everyone's super horse First Samurai with Bailey aboard.
Are we looking at a horse that will bounce or the next Secretariat? Beware of Socerer's Stone, Leo and Set Alight.

The Juvenille fillies has Adieu and Folklore to draw everyone's attention. Sleepers are Keeneland Kat with a new Jockey and Knight Templar an overlooked horse from Woodbine. Both of these horses are grandsired by Storm Cat.

The Mile is very deep and challenging as usual. Leroidesanimaux is a strong favorite having won 8 straight. This race, however, is a wild scrample on the turn. Post position and racing luck will dominate the outcome. Horses worth considering are Valixer(Andre Fabre), Gorella(3YR filly), Singletary(Last yrs champ and 2nd choice), Major Casts(Massive ROI trainer) and Host(14/14 ITM and a mid-priced sleeper).

The Sprint has undefeated LOST IN THE FOG. Worthy challengers are Taste of Paradise, Silver Train and Elusive Jazz. Lost in the Fog gets tested.

The Filly and mare Turf has Ouija Board, last years champ and likely favorite, to contend with. Contenders to unseat her are Mona Lisa (great smile) and Karen's Caper(prepped in Keeneland).

The Turf will be a competitive race this year. Alkassed, Bago and Shirocco look formidable. Money should spread all over the place. They will be flying on the turn and the stretch run will be the survival of the fittest. Cold and damp conditions will favor foreign horses. If it comes up soft maybe Gun Salute can sneak into the picture.

The Classic is far from it's calling card. This has second string written all over it. The best horses have all fallen by the wayside. Rock Hard Ten, Saint Liam and Borrego make the top choices and offer zero value. Oratorio is a distance specialist and offers little value for high risk.Starcraft maybe hyped as well. A hidden horse that will be let go at a price is Suave. Beaten by each of the top three horses he will be dismissed by most. However, a lightly raced May foal thats 4years old out of AP INDY is capable of jumping up when you least expect it. Second to Borrego, Second to Rock Hard Ten and fourth to Saint Liam beaten 2 lengths is not bad. Considering two of those races came as a 3 yr old, he maybe ready to peak in his fourth start of the year and his second at Belmont. Please take note of Suave's outstandinf off-track breeding .

Hopefully, this gives you food for thought. The fields are deep and the prices should be good.

10-23-2005, 02:38 PM	#4
Baffalator AlwNW2X Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 24	Breeders Cup Early There are many unknowns concerning weather and final field makeups. However, I've spent several days going through the Racing Form advance and reading Mazur's Crushing The Cup. Beyer numbers and Racing Form analysis are interesting reading. The DRF and Bloodhorse are also sources of information. This is a rough breakdown by race of horses of interest. Much work remains to make final choices etc. The DISTAFF gives me three horses of interest. Ashado the favorite. Capeside Lady Pletchers other horse who LOVES THE MUD. Sweet Symphony the overlooked 3 yr who also likes off going. The Juvenille has everyone's super horse First Samurai with Bailey aboard. Are we looking at a horse that will bounce or the next Secretariat? Beware of Socerer's Stone, Leo and Set Alight. The Juvenille fillies has Adieu and Folklore to draw everyone's attention. Sleepers are Keeneland Kat with a new Jockey and Knight Templar an overlooked horse from Woodbine. Both of these horses are grandsired by Storm Cat. The Mile is very deep and challenging as usual. Leroidesanimaux is a strong favorite having won 8 straight. This race, however, is a wild scrample on the turn. Post position and racing luck will dominate the outcome. Horses worth considering are Valixer(Andre Fabre), Gorella(3YR filly), Singletary(Last yrs champ and 2nd choice), Major Casts(Massive ROI trainer) and Host(14/14 ITM and a mid-priced sleeper). The Sprint has undefeated LOST IN THE FOG. Worthy challengers are Taste of Paradise, Silver Train and Elusive Jazz. Lost in the Fog gets tested. The Filly and mare Turf has Ouija Board, last years champ and likely favorite, to contend with. Contenders to unseat her are Mona Lisa (great smile) and Karen's Caper(prepped in Keeneland). The Turf will be a competitive race this year. Alkassed, Bago and Shirocco look formidable. Money should spread all over the place. They will be flying on the turn and the stretch run will be the survival of the fittest. Cold and damp conditions will favor foreign horses. If it comes up soft maybe Gun Salute can sneak into the picture. The Classic is far from it's calling card. This has second string written all over it. The best horses have all fallen by the wayside. Rock Hard Ten, Saint Liam and Borrego make the top choices and offer zero value. Oratorio is a distance specialist and offers little value for high risk.Starcraft maybe hyped as well. A hidden horse that will be let go at a price is Suave. Beaten by each of the top three horses he will be dismissed by most. However, a lightly raced May foal thats 4years old out of AP INDY is capable of jumping up when you least expect it. Second to Borrego, Second to Rock Hard Ten and fourth to Saint Liam beaten 2 lengths is not bad. Considering two of those races came as a 3 yr old, he maybe ready to peak in his fourth start of the year and his second at Belmont. Please take note of Suave's outstandinf off-track breeding . Hopefully, this gives you food for thought. The fields are deep and the prices should be good.