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Hi Rich- I guess I'll kick things off...The second "Mind's Eye" race was a sign to me that I need work on evaluating Early runners with power lines far down in the PP's. Specifically, when to accept that 1st call as a pace the horse can win or be competitive against and use that to analyze today's race. In the mind's eye race, when you accept #7's line 6-back the rest of the analysis clearly points to her as the likely winner. Your explanation about the last-race blowout win allowing you to open up the pp's all the way was an eye opener for me.
I guess I feel that I need more practice differentiating when to open up the pp's all the way versus situations where a horse has "changed his style" or "has become a slow horse".
On a positive note, because of the race you laid out, I spotted what I thought was a similar situation at Hollywood Park on Sunday. I did not bet a dime on the horse as I'm still developing confidence in this situation. However, it happens to be Bill's "lemon" race. I was happy to see that others had bet this horse.
Without going through the analysis of the whole race, I'll share what I saw on the #5 horse, Raingear. I saw that he won his last race nicely from off the pace but was first at the break. I then scrolled down and saw his race 5-back. He was 2nd by a head at the 1C in 21.2! After that fight, he finished second by 3/4 of a length. Based on his last race I accepted him as an early horse and took the 21.2 pace, understanding that he could also win OTE. Anyway, with that pace as the guide, the rest of the anlaysis was very similar to me as your 2nd Mind's Eye Race, with Raingear dominating early.
Anyway, I don't know if this is a challenge for anyone else, but any thoughts you have will be greatly appreciated...
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