Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteC
Hi Rich- I guess I'll kick things off...The second "Mind's Eye" race was a sign to me that I need work on evaluating Early runners with power lines far down in the PP's. Specifically, when to accept that 1st call as a pace the horse can win or be competitive against and use that to analyze today's race. In the mind's eye race, when you accept #7's line 6-back the rest of the analysis clearly points to her as the likely winner. Your explanation about the last-race blowout win allowing you to open up the pp's all the way was an eye opener for me.
I guess I feel that I need more practice differentiating when to open up the pp's all the way versus situations where a horse has "changed his style" or "has become a slow horse".
On a positive note, because of the race you laid out, I spotted what I thought was a similar situation at Hollywood Park on Sunday. I did not bet a dime on the horse as I'm still developing confidence in this situation. However, it happens to be Bill's "lemon" race. I was happy to see that others had bet this horse.
Without going through the analysis of the whole race, I'll share what I saw on the #5 horse, Raingear. I saw that he won his last race nicely from off the pace but was first at the break. I then scrolled down and saw his race 5-back. He was 2nd by a head at the 1C in 21.2! After that fight, he finished second by 3/4 of a length. Based on his last race I accepted him as an early horse and took the 21.2 pace, understanding that he could also win OTE. Anyway, with that pace as the guide, the rest of the anlaysis was very similar to me as your 2nd Mind's Eye Race, with Raingear dominating early.
Anyway, I don't know if this is a challenge for anyone else, but any thoughts you have will be greatly appreciated...
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Ok Pete:
1) We MUST consider the horses entire past performances when we have determined he is "still a horse". Using all the lines is Jim's way of AVOIDING having to adjust a horse with variants/track to track and the like.
Go back and check the Sunland race please in the "Mind's Eye" thread. On that winning 7 horse we MUST MUST MUST be able to go down to that Zia line deep in the pp's.
Why did I use the word must 3 times? That race was the last race Jim worked with me when he was in the hospital ok? HE wanted THAT race and horse put up here and said "The fellas MUST be able to get that horse Rich off that Zia line.That's the Matchup"
2) As to your 2nd part re the Holly race. Pete I am not blowing smoke when I tell you EXCELLENT "Mind's Eye" work there. You looked at a horse and saw him multi-dimensionally after taking in his looks on several lines in the past performances. Keep working races in a quiet environment man.
YOUR "Mind's Eye" is developing beautifully. "Pictures" of a horse's ability are starting to form in your mind. Keep listening Pete. Keep listening.
Your INTUITION is talking to you.
1) Listen
2) ACT on the FIRST thing it tells you about a horse/race. Practice acting QUICKLY