Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - PHA -- you must be joking!

alydar_ David · 11-01-2005, 02:10 AM

Charlie,

PHA reported a horse scratched. That horse won the race. How does a scratched horse win the race? It's impossible. That's what infuriated me and was the point of the post.

As for the second race bomb that paid $72.80 to win...no, I didn't have it. She's a four year old Filly which has been going Wrong Way, Feldman.

I like to see young horses improving, not getting worse with every outing. I made her about 99-1 Fair Odds based on her past performances. If you throw out her last five races you can come up with a competetive paceline, but why in the world would you do that?

The only thing she had going for her was Tanya Boulmetis who has had some, shall we say "interesting" horses win after a freshening. She shows a profit in that situation, but the day I start betting on trainer intent alone is the day I leave the methodology.

Unfortunately, you see this kind of thing a lot at PHA and some other tracks.

Suggestions for you? I wouldn't recommend PHA to anyone unless their name is Binder.

HOO is a great claiming track with large fields, nice prices and horses you can *get*. My best money makers this year have been EVD and HOO. No question about it. EVD is quarter horses now, but HOO is still running.

MNR is also good. So is TDN. Any of the cheap claiming tracks can work for you, especially in sprints.

I'd recommend those tracks over the "specialty" tracks where you need inside information to really have any kind of chance. You know the tracks I mean. You see horses that don't make any sense being bet down like crazy and winning like gangbusters. KEE is a perfect example. If you don't know what's happening on the backstretch you have two chances of turning a profit for the meet: slim and none.

I'd say PHA, LRL and CRC are not far behind. You need to know what games they're playing.

DEL can be profitable. Logical horses win a lot. Chalky, but logical for the most part.

SUF can be profitable too.

All of the above is strictly my opinion, of course. And I guarantee at least one person here disagrees with me. Hehe. :>)

11-01-2005, 02:10 AM	#5
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Charlie, PHA reported a horse scratched. That horse won the race. How does a scratched horse win the race? It's impossible. That's what infuriated me and was the point of the post. As for the second race bomb that paid $72.80 to win...no, I didn't have it. She's a four year old Filly which has been going Wrong Way, Feldman. I like to see young horses improving, not getting worse with every outing. I made her about 99-1 Fair Odds based on her past performances. If you throw out her last five races you can come up with a competetive paceline, but why in the world would you do that? The only thing she had going for her was Tanya Boulmetis who has had some, shall we say "interesting" horses win after a freshening. She shows a profit in that situation, but the day I start betting on trainer intent alone is the day I leave the methodology. Unfortunately, you see this kind of thing a lot at PHA and some other tracks. Suggestions for you? I wouldn't recommend PHA to anyone unless their name is Binder. HOO is a great claiming track with large fields, nice prices and horses you can get. My best money makers this year have been EVD and HOO. No question about it. EVD is quarter horses now, but HOO is still running. MNR is also good. So is TDN. Any of the cheap claiming tracks can work for you, especially in sprints. I'd recommend those tracks over the "specialty" tracks where you need inside information to really have any kind of chance. You know the tracks I mean. You see horses that don't make any sense being bet down like crazy and winning like gangbusters. KEE is a perfect example. If you don't know what's happening on the backstretch you have two chances of turning a profit for the meet: slim and none. I'd say PHA, LRL and CRC are not far behind. You need to know what games they're playing. DEL can be profitable. Logical horses win a lot. Chalky, but logical for the most part. SUF can be profitable too. All of the above is strictly my opinion, of course. And I guarantee at least one person here disagrees with me. Hehe. :>)