Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

alydar_ David · 11-02-2005, 04:19 PM

Charlie,

Glad to hear you had a good day at the windows.

About the second race at HOO tonight, November 2.

Model Information:
Based on the last 26 "races like this one" the following is relevant.

One of the top three SP horses wins 65% of the time.
#4 #6 #7

One of the top two TPR horses wins 50% of the time.
#6 #4

The top EP horse wins 19% of the time. That's not much, but it's the highest single factor.
#6

Analysis:
#6 Surprise Party should be all alone at the second call. #4 Mattie Silks and #7 June Bug Baby look like the only ones with a chance to catch her, but she'll probably be too far ahead for that to happen.

All three of them are 3-1 or more on the morning line. So, there could be profit to be made on the win end.

As for the exotics, if you're right about the 12-1 shot it might be time to send it in.

Good luck if you play tonight!

11-02-2005, 04:19 PM	#2
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Charlie, Glad to hear you had a good day at the windows. About the second race at HOO tonight, November 2. Model Information: Based on the last 26 "races like this one" the following is relevant. One of the top three SP horses wins 65% of the time. #4 #6 #7 One of the top two TPR horses wins 50% of the time. #6 #4 The top EP horse wins 19% of the time. That's not much, but it's the highest single factor. #6 Analysis: #6 Surprise Party should be all alone at the second call. #4 Mattie Silks and #7 June Bug Baby look like the only ones with a chance to catch her, but she'll probably be too far ahead for that to happen. All three of them are 3-1 or more on the morning line. So, there could be profit to be made on the win end. As for the exotics, if you're right about the 12-1 shot it might be time to send it in. Good luck if you play tonight!