Quote:
Originally Posted by lbj
Socantra,
a good example of what appear to be a slow horse is a race where Richie and I discussed after the fact. No software was used. The race in question was AP 5-24 race#9. The Match Up clearly indicate an OTE race and #6 as the probable winner due his last race. We know that #7 did place and my question to you is:
Is #7 a slow horse that can't overcame today's POR based on his past performance? Do you see anything positive about this horse that would allowed you to use him in an ex, or toss him out?
Btw the ex paid $451.00
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Okay, First the disclaimers. I did not look at this race before it ran. I do not have the Trackmaster past performance, but do have the TSN PP. I have handicapped as little artificial surfaces as possible and generally look at lower class tracks. I am not, in any way a Match Up expert. I've read a lot of Bradshaw and a lot of Richie's posts, and feel I have learned a lot. So far though, I have not discovered the magic.
Most likely, I would have glanced at this race and passed right on by. There are too many horses too close together and nothing jumps out at me.
If you and Richie have looked at the race and determined other then early and the #6 as your most likely winner, I'll start from there.
The #7 doesn't look like a slow horse to me. If you go back to when the horse was running well, it was running against stronger fractions that the #6 horse. In fact, it is running against stronger fractions in its recent races.
I also notice the #7 is running its 3rd race off a layoff (which is kind of magic to me) and that it gained in beaten lengths in both of its last 2 races and in position in its last race.
I would have probably used line #6 for the 7 horse and I don't see any other line for the 6 horse other than the last, which appears to be the best of its career.
So no, I don't see the #7 as a slow horse. That 3rd start after a layoff is enough to send me back to earlier races. Whether I would have gotten to the exacta or not, I can't honestly say, but Bill's readouts make me think I might have been in the neighborhood. I'm still not much of an exacta player.
Dick