Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Ted Craven · 08-04-2008, 06:18 PM

David,

On this board and elsewhere, Tim Y (citing Michael Pizzolla in his book Handicapping Magic) has made the case, which I now accept and employ, that horses are more likely in Turf races to run back to prior shown ability on Turf than they are on non-Turf surfaces. Thus, if the horse has recently demonstrated reasonable current form (e.g. recent competitive finish, early run at the pace, good closing move, steady series of works returning from a layoff, etc), consider accepting its best Turf effort regardless of how old it is to represent it in today's Turf match up. I actually don't know (or care) why this is...

Check Tim Y's posts here, searching for 'Pizzolla's Window', as he calls it, meaning a timeframe outside of which you would usually NOT use a paceline. In Turf races, the idea is to 'open the Window' wider than you normally would (e.g. wider than the last 90 or 180 days, or last 3 lines, etc). I studied Pizzolla's chapter on Form Cycle Windows, and actually did not find a discussion specifically on 'opening the Window' for Turf races (maybe I missed it...). However, my own repeated success in Turf races with older Turf lines (given a good estimate of current ability), gvien me confidence to use this technique for myself.

Perhaps Tim Y will elaborate.

All other things being equal, I want to see the horse with high L/ep, Tpp, Hidden and Total Energy (i.e. emphacizing F3 but also F2). However, I also try not to get too fancy, and will accept the wisdom of the Bottom Line/Betting Line and VDC, especially if it is confirmed by the Segments screen. I don't have evidence that Late or Sustained visual running styles win more than their fair share of Turf races - perhaps others do. The 12f Turf WO race I cited above was won gate to wire by the only confirmed visually EP Turf horse. (In the event, its turf lines were all recent, but I rated others off older Turf lines).

If I had to use dirt or poly lines for a horse (due to no Turf), I would use more recent lines, and generally tend to deprecate their chances to win at first asking, versus confirmed Turf horses.

Hope that helps. Looking forward to hearing you've become a Turf specialist! Actually, some handicappers I know here are precisely that, and perhaps they will chime in.

Ted

08-04-2008, 06:18 PM	#11
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,251	David, On this board and elsewhere, Tim Y (citing Michael Pizzolla in his book Handicapping Magic) has made the case, which I now accept and employ, that horses are more likely in Turf races to run back to prior shown ability on Turf than they are on non-Turf surfaces. Thus, if the horse has recently demonstrated reasonable current form (e.g. recent competitive finish, early run at the pace, good closing move, steady series of works returning from a layoff, etc), consider accepting its best Turf effort regardless of how old it is to represent it in today's Turf match up. I actually don't know (or care) why this is... Check Tim Y's posts here, searching for 'Pizzolla's Window', as he calls it, meaning a timeframe outside of which you would usually NOT use a paceline. In Turf races, the idea is to 'open the Window' wider than you normally would (e.g. wider than the last 90 or 180 days, or last 3 lines, etc). I studied Pizzolla's chapter on Form Cycle Windows, and actually did not find a discussion specifically on 'opening the Window' for Turf races (maybe I missed it...). However, my own repeated success in Turf races with older Turf lines (given a good estimate of current ability), gvien me confidence to use this technique for myself. Perhaps Tim Y will elaborate. All other things being equal, I want to see the horse with high L/ep, Tpp, Hidden and Total Energy (i.e. emphacizing F3 but also F2). However, I also try not to get too fancy, and will accept the wisdom of the Bottom Line/Betting Line and VDC, especially if it is confirmed by the Segments screen. I don't have evidence that Late or Sustained visual running styles win more than their fair share of Turf races - perhaps others do. The 12f Turf WO race I cited above was won gate to wire by the only confirmed visually EP Turf horse. (In the event, its turf lines were all recent, but I rated others off older Turf lines). If I had to use dirt or poly lines for a horse (due to no Turf), I would use more recent lines, and generally tend to deprecate their chances to win at first asking, versus confirmed Turf horses. Hope that helps. Looking forward to hearing you've become a Turf specialist! Actually, some handicappers I know here are precisely that, and perhaps they will chime in. Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-04-2008 at 06:21 PM.