Charlie,
Nothing wrong with his last 2 lines - but they are each much lower Total Energy than the 3rd. The horse is fit, and capable of running his race, according to recent performance. Therefore, he deserves to be rated off the best (recently) that he can do when fit - the 3rd line. That line put him down the list, and the other 2 put him further down. Therefore, the best he is capable of is not good enough in this mix. In my approach, I would leave the 3rd line in for him and he would be the 5th horse in the set, but not a likely contender today.
I guess the proposition is: rate a horse off their best (though perhaps not outrageously best) if they seem fit. Why penalize them for trouble, or surface difference unnecessarily. If doing so makes it a strong contender, then I'd try to answer other questions such as does the surface switch
really make a difference, or are they likely to duplicate that best ever (i.e. are they improving or did they peak in a cycle). If I had knowledge that a certain track/surface transfered too fast or too slowly to today's track/surface, I would try to use something else, or downgrade the adjusted paceline - but I don't have that info for KEE poly to SAR dirt, so I just go with the ITV. In this case, it was moot, but FWIW those are considerations I find myself cycling through.
Ted
