Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

alydar_ David · 10-04-2008, 12:10 PM

I suggest you do whatever you're comfortable with and find what works for you. Test out some different approaches.

Personally, I no longer follow any rules. I look at each case individually.

Here's one example. Suppose the horse has been off for 300 days. All of his last eight races were run within 30 days of each other.

Then you spot a layoff of 300 days between his 10th race and his 9th race. His 9th race was on today's track, at today's class, on today's surface, and the horse ran well without having any trouble.

You also notice that the horse has had three workouts within the last month, one of them two weeks ago at five furlongs. All of them at today's track.

You also notice that the trainer has a healthy win percentage and ROI after a long layoff.

I'd use that ninth race back...in a heartbeat.

10-04-2008, 12:10 PM	#9
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Paceline selection -- how far back I suggest you do whatever you're comfortable with and find what works for you. Test out some different approaches. Personally, I no longer follow any rules. I look at each case individually. Here's one example. Suppose the horse has been off for 300 days. All of his last eight races were run within 30 days of each other. Then you spot a layoff of 300 days between his 10th race and his 9th race. His 9th race was on today's track, at today's class, on today's surface, and the horse ran well without having any trouble. You also notice that the horse has had three workouts within the last month, one of them two weeks ago at five furlongs. All of them at today's track. You also notice that the trainer has a healthy win percentage and ROI after a long layoff. I'd use that ninth race back...in a heartbeat.