Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

lsosa54 · 10-26-2008, 08:04 AM

1-The Timeform ratings were fairly useful in determining whether the foreign contingent would be competitive from a performance ratings standpoint based on final time. Whether you used CJ's conversions (Timeform to Beyer) he posted up at PA here:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...39&postcount=2

or used the handy conversion chart seen here (seemed to give you some slightly lower numbers):

http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comp...speed_figs.htm

,they were certainly useful. Unfortunately, they don't include Trackmaster speed ratings.

Of course, you had to believe that the foreigners would take to the Pro Ride, as most had not run over it. Interesting what Curlin's trainer said: his biggest concern obviously was whether he would take to the Pro Ride. He said that training well over it, as Curlin's workout showed, doesn't mean you'll run well over it. Interesting. He said that first time around when he saw Curlin off the bit, he knew he was in trouble.

There might have also been some vulnerability in the steroid free version of Curlin, as it seemed he was just a notch below the monster he was before he was taken off the Winstrol in January. In any case, many kudos have to go to Jess Jackson for placing sportsmanship and the horse's well being first.

2-You certainly could not do a numerical pace analysis, but if you read the comments line on most pp's ( I had BRIS and DRF), you could get an idea of where these horses typically ran positionally. A rough idea, but an idea. I also figured that running positionally early in Europe still may not mean that they would be "up front" even on the Pro Ride, due to the much slower paces on the turf courses in Europe, where they really save themselves for the final quarter. To me, most of these guys would be running in the stretch.

10-26-2008, 08:04 AM	#2
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	1-The Timeform ratings were fairly useful in determining whether the foreign contingent would be competitive from a performance ratings standpoint based on final time. Whether you used CJ's conversions (Timeform to Beyer) he posted up at PA here: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...39&postcount=2 or used the handy conversion chart seen here (seemed to give you some slightly lower numbers): http://www.chef-de-race.com/pfs/comp...speed_figs.htm ,they were certainly useful. Unfortunately, they don't include Trackmaster speed ratings. Of course, you had to believe that the foreigners would take to the Pro Ride, as most had not run over it. Interesting what Curlin's trainer said: his biggest concern obviously was whether he would take to the Pro Ride. He said that training well over it, as Curlin's workout showed, doesn't mean you'll run well over it. Interesting. He said that first time around when he saw Curlin off the bit, he knew he was in trouble. There might have also been some vulnerability in the steroid free version of Curlin, as it seemed he was just a notch below the monster he was before he was taken off the Winstrol in January. In any case, many kudos have to go to Jess Jackson for placing sportsmanship and the horse's well being first. 2-You certainly could not do a numerical pace analysis, but if you read the comments line on most pp's ( I had BRIS and DRF), you could get an idea of where these horses typically ran positionally. A rough idea, but an idea. I also figured that running positionally early in Europe still may not mean that they would be "up front" even on the Pro Ride, due to the much slower paces on the turf courses in Europe, where they really save themselves for the final quarter. To me, most of these guys would be running in the stretch.