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Having now watched EVERY break in EVERY race for two years (by actual
count it is well over 1500 races), getting to know the difficulties
the starter and assistant starters have in keeping the enclosed
animals attentive and in line, the break, even in horses USED to be up
on the lead, are under so many extraneous factors, totally out of
control of the handicapper, that it borders on randomness.
Subtle, tiny factors with things like a horse relieving themsleves
just as the gate opens, stepping slightly back into the rear doors
JUST as the doors open, turning their head in response to the
assistant starter's pressure, the reponse of tailing animals on the
verge of flipping, and a myriad of other uncommon things EFFECTS every
break every day putting many horses near, or close to the lead, when it
was nothing but luck that did it.
Unless one is OUT on top in the first flight each and every time, one
should take the break with a HUGE grain of salt race to race.
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