[Houndog]

Originally Posted by Turbulator

Query:

Two or three early horses in a race with first call times within 1/5 second of each other.

Race projection other than early.

I'm curious how often the early horse wins anyway. (Average odds would be interesting too.)

I'm sure there might be some here with data base capabilities or records of such information.

I could make a "ballpark" guess, but that's all it would be.

Obviously, the early horses are going to win "some" percentage of the time when there is other matching speed in the race, but I'm curious what that might be broken down for sprint/route, turf, poly, overall, etc. There might even be a big difference between maiden and claimers, allowance and stakes races.

I'm not talking about using Quirin speed points, but actual first call times.

Thanks to anyone that can help.

[It's times like these that I wish I had data base skills. Poof! Query the data base, and I have my answer(s).]

[Oh, my ballpark guess? 7-15%~]

Hi Mike,
The "gotcha" that you threw is the phrase "Race projection other than early."
What I have to say might ruffle a few feathers because it goes against the grain of current discussions on Sartin match up concepts...
But my own research very clearly indicates the most accurate means of projecting a race as either "early" or "other than early" has far more to do with the surface being either speed friendly or speed tiring than the amount of pace pressure within a race or the way that the horses within the race match up. On speed tiring surfaces early horses tire early and spit the bit. On speed favoring surfaces even cheap speed has the ability to wire almost any field.
My research very clearly indicates two long term patterns as the public bets the races:
1. Early speed is consistently ignored while late speed is consistently overbet.
2. Form or readiness is a measurable commodity and the public has very little idea of how to go about doing that. Workouts can be a good way to identify readiness. Horses with 5f or longer bullet drills are frequently ignored by the public. Yet if the same "move" were made in the afternoon during a race the public would be all over the horse.
Ok. That said, back to your question: "How often does the early horse win?"
I'll try to run a few data samples and shoot them your way (time allowing) later.
Jeff

Taking things a little further, in the question you put to me "I'm curious how often the early horse wins anyway" my own data studies very clearly show that form or readiness has more of an influence than