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Ted
Hope you don't mind me jumping in here, from a different perspective.
I've be cashing with a particular move lately; and with TRAKUS available at KEE (and DMR) I've also been observing how much distance a horse runs in a race in relation to the winner.
If you look at the chart, Dhanyata stands out based on this angle: She's the only one of the top four early that's around at the finish, in a race where the top 3 came from off the pace. Now, the replay shows that while she got a nice inside trip, she was stuck behind horses, getting bounced around until late in the stretch, and by the time she got out, the closers blew by. She'd thus be a definite betback. However, if we look at the distance covered, she ran 1 foot less than the winner and 26 feet less than the 2nd finisher. In fact, she was only one of two horses in the race to run LESS than the winner (the other ran 3 feet less and finished 6th) while most of the field ran quite a bit more (32 feet more was the maximum). So the question then becomes do race dynamics, where she got a bad trip, and actual race events, where she was bounced around, trump distance covered.
It didn't matter as she was 6:5 and not bettable. It was, ironic, however, that she made her own trouble and got DQd in a race where she was best.
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