Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

alydar_ David · 01-26-2006, 08:30 PM

Interesting. We see this race differently.

Here's my take on it.

#3 seems to be the sole front runner in a more or less paceless race. He should have plenty left in the tank to finish the job too. At 3-1 he's probably an overlay. I'd think his fair odds are somewhere in the range of 2-1 or even less. I'd call him a legitimate favorite and I don't like to bet against legitimate favorites.

If we hold our breath and close our eyes (and assume #3 doesn't feel like running today for some reason), the value win bets will probably be on #9 at 10-1 and #4 at 12-1.

I might toss a couple of bucks on those as a flier, but unless #3 is scratched I'll be treading very cautiously. This is not a great betting race.

PS- I think #7 is also legitimate. And at 5/2 that means you have to beat two "real" horses to make money.

Oh, and there's nothing wrong with the #6 horse either. I don't think you'll get 6-1 on him though.

01-26-2006, 08:30 PM	#7
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Interesting. We see this race differently. Here's my take on it. #3 seems to be the sole front runner in a more or less paceless race. He should have plenty left in the tank to finish the job too. At 3-1 he's probably an overlay. I'd think his fair odds are somewhere in the range of 2-1 or even less. I'd call him a legitimate favorite and I don't like to bet against legitimate favorites. If we hold our breath and close our eyes (and assume #3 doesn't feel like running today for some reason), the value win bets will probably be on #9 at 10-1 and #4 at 12-1. I might toss a couple of bucks on those as a flier, but unless #3 is scratched I'll be treading very cautiously. This is not a great betting race. PS- I think #7 is also legitimate. And at 5/2 that means you have to beat two "real" horses to make money. Oh, and there's nothing wrong with the #6 horse either. I don't think you'll get 6-1 on him though.