Quote:
Originally Posted by Charlie D
These have NO bearing on TODAYS Match Up
Each race is different, the Pace changes, ability of horses change and so and so and so on
J
|
yup and that is heading toward sample error.
Whenever a rational test of an idea transpires, the results of a single episode are fraught with the specificity of the distinct situation of that day. No experimental evidence I have every read, seen, or been a part of allows for decisions to be made on a single observation. In racing we are projecting a performance on to today and basing it, as so many incorrectly do, on a single episode, is asking for a quantum leap in error.
I have made this parallel before. Lets say I like a good basketball player like Jordan but I happen to see him one night when he was SICK but played anyway and on another night where he dad was ill and he still played. BOTH of these times he was sub-par.......so one then extrapolates Jordan's' abilities or for that matter, a horse's abilities on sample error observations?. Don't think so.
This idea is not anything new as the classic tale of the blind men and the elephant demonstrates. Each blind man only touched
Part of the elephant and ON THOSE SAMPLE ERRORED observations, extrapolated the entire beast. The one who had touched the trunk thought it was much like a snake, the one touching the leg thought it much like a tree trunk etc etc.
I often see people here pick the third line back and base their entire evaluation on that single line as if it somehow functioned in a vacuum.
If you had ever actually been back in the barns following a race, you would have an idea at how much a race takes out of a horse, how they often go off their feed for days. the nicks in their hide from stones kicking up in the course. No single performance is without effect and to iron out the reality (the performer) from the sample error (the performance), requires multiple lines, like ANY scientific procedure dictates.
It is only when one UNDERSTANDS how a horse reacts to multiple pace pressures can the evaluation point to the performance that is most likely to present itself today. It is like saying Bret Farve will pass based upon a single observation. It just is not reality.