Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Y
Aqueduct has gone the opposite way as followed by several people all based upon changes in TRACK profile NOT horses as reported by TK the other day:
"I show only 1 true early day
there since they went to the inner, that being 12/28, when the track
was labeled good and drying out. That is usually not the type of
surface that favors the front end, but it did big time that day. Every
other day, the other end of the spectrum, the latest L/E, top MUG
winners have been the more predictive winners. They do have a new
track super, but this is a very drastic change. Even the coldest of
days have not changed things there. (we are sitting today at -27 so I
guess cold is all relative - just about everything closed around here
at that temp today). The coolest temps of the season forecast for New
York this weekend so if that does not bring back the front runners, I
am not sure what will."
Evidence, gleaned by independent assessment has even more validity
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I've been spending some time here going over races for the last four days on the inner dirt.
For the time being, let me report what I show for routes.
DATE--------RACE----BL RANK---DCL RANK---MUTUEL
1/10
---------------1----------5----------4-----------13.40
---------------7----------5----------2------------4.90
---------------8----------3----------2------------26.80
1/11
---------------1---------1------------1----------5.80
---------------5---------2------------1---------13.60
---------------9---------6------------5---------17.00
1/14
---------------1---------2------------2-----------6.60
---------------3---------1------------1-----------8.90
1/15
---------------1----------2-----------2-----------9.90
---------------5----------4-----------1----------11.00
---------------7----------2-----------1-----------9.50
---------------9----------6-----------1----------23.60
All the above routes were whittled down to the top 5 contenders by Total Energy in fields of 9 or less. Fields of 10 or more were finalized to the top six contenders in Total Energy.
Those who limit play to the top two BL horses would have hit in six of the twelve routes. Total cost = $48.00. Yield = $54.30.
Playing the top two DCL horses would have had one collecting in ten of the twelve races. Total cost = $48.00. Yield = $120.60.
I don't suggest at all limiting consideration to DCL rank, but over the past four racing days at AQU, it has been a powerful indicator based upon the way that I pick representative pace lines after usually examining multiple lines for the top contenders.