Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - EVD 6th -- Saturday, Feb. 4

alydar_ David · 02-04-2006, 03:23 PM

EVD 6th -- Saturday, Feb. 4
6F Claiming $5,000
F&M 4YO+

Chew on this one for a while. Hehe. Talk about a chaos race!
In this fourteen horse field no horse is even remotely better than another.

Here's my take.

#12 Historic's Surprise has the best Total Energy and she's 8-1 on the morning line. This doesn't qualify as an automatic bet (I prefer 10-1 MLO for those), but it certainly makes her a contender. She's also got the fastest final time and can run to sustained pace par. The negatives? Well, she can't run to 1F or 2C par and this is 6F.

#7 Tiffany Cut can run to par and her zig-zag pattern indicates she may run well today. At 9/2 she's the shortest price I'm considering.

#13 Skating Katie has the strongest pace ratings. She doesn't have any late kick, but at 12-1 we can be a little forgiving. She's got five speed points which is more than anyone in the race except #1 Devil's Lock who has seven speed points.

I make these top three all about 4-1 Fair Odds.

#1 Devil's Lock is the speedball, class of the field, and has a dangerous trainer off the layoff. I think 6-1 is a tad' low for this horse, but if he drifts up to 10-1 I'll keep my eyes open.

Other horses I'll consider for the win and exotics include.

#8 listed at 10-1
#5 listed at 6-1
#14 listed at 10-1
#3 listed at 8-1
#13 listed at 12-1

In summary, I'll use at least one of my 4-1 Fair Odds horses. The rest...play by ear.

02-04-2006, 03:23 PM	#1
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	EVD 6th -- Saturday, Feb. 4 EVD 6th -- Saturday, Feb. 4 6F Claiming $5,000 F&M 4YO+ Chew on this one for a while. Hehe. Talk about a chaos race! In this fourteen horse field no horse is even remotely better than another. Here's my take. #12 Historic's Surprise has the best Total Energy and she's 8-1 on the morning line. This doesn't qualify as an automatic bet (I prefer 10-1 MLO for those), but it certainly makes her a contender. She's also got the fastest final time and can run to sustained pace par. The negatives? Well, she can't run to 1F or 2C par and this is 6F. #7 Tiffany Cut can run to par and her zig-zag pattern indicates she may run well today. At 9/2 she's the shortest price I'm considering. #13 Skating Katie has the strongest pace ratings. She doesn't have any late kick, but at 12-1 we can be a little forgiving. She's got five speed points which is more than anyone in the race except #1 Devil's Lock who has seven speed points. I make these top three all about 4-1 Fair Odds. #1 Devil's Lock is the speedball, class of the field, and has a dangerous trainer off the layoff. I think 6-1 is a tad' low for this horse, but if he drifts up to 10-1 I'll keep my eyes open. Other horses I'll consider for the win and exotics include. #8 listed at 10-1 #5 listed at 6-1 #14 listed at 10-1 #3 listed at 8-1 #13 listed at 12-1 In summary, I'll use at least one of my 4-1 Fair Odds horses. The rest...play by ear.