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I have two friends who own stock which race at MNR and CT. They almost never know how their respective horses will run and neither do their trainers.
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No past performance is guaranteed, be it a Grade 1 ability horse or a Cheap Claimer ability horse, however, the probability of Grade 1 ability horse running similar races back to back is a lot higher than the Cheap Claimer.
The lesser ability the horse, the more erractic his/her performances can become, making it more difficult to evaluate horses and find the true contenders in todays race.
This is why you see millions of dollars bet on say BC races and only a few hundred dollars bet on the Cheap races