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Thanks for posting and analyzing this race
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No problem
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Both of these are very characteristic of cheap races. It seems to me that the main problem with cheaper races is not that it's impossible to find winners, but that the few horses that clearly can run are easily spotted by the betting public and thus offer little wager value, and the horses that do often hit at a price, like those you pointed out, are relatively unpredictable form-reversal specials, as Brohamer once explained to me. There is very little hidden value (by pace figure standards) of the kind that is found in higher-class races (50 claimers work best for me) that is also relatively *reliable*.
Thanks for your comments.
Cheers,
B Jennet
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Those easily spotted by the betting public are also prone to erractic factor too and it is the "easily spotted" your trying to take advantage of, like in the Hawthorne race
The #1 was a true contender, but not unbeateable, the #8 had a tandem loss to #1, but a reverse of that was not out of the question and that being so, it meant the #8 was a true contender and an overlay as the result proved
This is the type of race to look for at this level, if you don't want to bet two in this scenario, bet the other contender (#8) w,p,s, if the tandem holds your still collecting