Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bob Cochran · 03-09-2009, 06:23 PM

I had a couple of thoughts regarding limitations of the methodology dealing
with cheap horses and tracks.

I feel the limitations are a cheap horse's inability to run successive good
races in form. The better horses maintain good form longer than the cheap
stock. They are less "cripple" than the cheap horses.

Many times when searching for a paceline for cheap horses, you have to go deeper in the PP's to look at a horse to see how it trains up to a win, or good effort. Recent lines for the better horses are far more predictable.

You will probably find fewer "repeaters" amongst the cheapies than the classier horses. Wins and closeup finishes in cheap races produce a lot of vulnerable favorites, creating not-so-obvious overlays. The limitations are in the handicapper who fails to analyze this.

IMHO,
BobC

03-09-2009, 06:23 PM	#59
Bob Cochran Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 330	Limits I had a couple of thoughts regarding limitations of the methodology dealing with cheap horses and tracks. I feel the limitations are a cheap horse's inability to run successive good races in form. The better horses maintain good form longer than the cheap stock. They are less "cripple" than the cheap horses. Many times when searching for a paceline for cheap horses, you have to go deeper in the PP's to look at a horse to see how it trains up to a win, or good effort. Recent lines for the better horses are far more predictable. You will probably find fewer "repeaters" amongst the cheapies than the classier horses. Wins and closeup finishes in cheap races produce a lot of vulnerable favorites, creating not-so-obvious overlays. The limitations are in the handicapper who fails to analyze this. IMHO, BobC