Thread: Sire Stats 2009
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Old 03-20-2009, 09:37 AM   #14
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,242
Bob,

As I mentioned in my email, I can add the Sire's Sire and the Dam's Sire and folks interested can do with that what they choose. I will most probably not add anything else re breeding to RDSS.

For the most part, I happen to agree with Tim Y (and with Doc, in general) that breeding data is less impactful overall to sorting the likely contenders than core Methodology concepts, and (along with copious stats re trainers and jockeys) can serve to cloud the analyst's judgement as much as it occasionally serves to shed light. I salute you though if your stats helped in this case elevate the #8 Papa Clem to win or place contender.

Though I would not advise newcomers to the racing game to spend any time understanding and analysing the effects of pedigree, I remember that Doc was never dogmatic on the topic, as Bob Cochran has mentioned elsewhere, and indeed he suggested that folks check out the writings of Mike Helm on the topic, perhaps if they need something to make sense of 2 year olds, or first time turfers, etc (e.g. for unavoidable legs of Pick 3,4,6 wagers).

Again, perhaps it depends on what one's overall goal is and where you are in the process. If someone is still trying to reach consistent profit, I'd say focus on pace, matchup, incremental energy disbursement - then wagercapping. If those are now a staple of your method, and you're trying to get that next 5% extra long-term ROI (e.g. on top of your first 25%...), then sure - add whatever extra tools work after examining your records. Just beware the old 'too clever by half' syndrome...

Cheers,

Ted
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