Thread: Tote Xray
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Old 04-03-2009, 04:04 PM   #4
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
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Storm,

The Tote Xray (TX) is a collection of ratio formulae between the 3 straight pools. There is a high co-relation between the 0.0 horse and the favourite, usually fairly low odds. That's why it is not coloured even though it is the best (too low value for profit). If however, the 0.0 horse is decent odds or not the favourite, you should pay attention.

I would not put much credence into the TX at all until about 2 MTP, then Bill's observations apply. The thing about this formula is: while win odds (and place and show pool net odds) will absolutely fluctuate in the last few tote ticks (and after the bell), the ratios represented by the TX will often fluctuate much less. Thus any of the first 4 TX ranks, combined with bettable odds, are intended to report a crowd consensus (possibly sometimes influenced by 'smart money' whatever that is) NOT represented by the simple Win Odds alone.

And sometimes, when you have no other info to go on, you must go on what you've got. Thus if you want to be in a horizontal bet and have to play 2 YO maidens (e.g. today KEE race 2) or need to consider other first timers with good works, say, or Foreigners, or longer layoff horses returning today - or other inscrutables - well, pass if you must, or track the ratios as discussed and wager if good odds present themselves.

Be careful about chasing mirages, though. In the win pool, the top 3 betting odds (look for colour ) represent a very high percentage of winners (80%+ ?) so you might track that in relation to TX ranks, just to make sure you're not going on a longshot bender. Still, the 3rd ranked Odds (yellow colour) can still be 4-1 through 8-1: lots of room for good mutuels.

It might also be possible to construct a betting method dutching 3 or more horses, using even a hint of handicapping for eliminations, to grind out ongoing profits using the TX alone, though I am not much interested in that personally. It is certainly possible also, that some trainers or betting parties at some tracks make the TX a more (or less) formful tool. There's a LOT more data-keeping that can be done and analysed on this and other tote stream data, and I'm excited to pursue this more properly as we go along.

Hope that helps a bit.

Ted
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Last edited by Ted Craven; 04-03-2009 at 04:06 PM.
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