[reckless]

hello everyone:

I have learned a lot so far reading you guys analyzing races of which I am most greatful.

I thought I could share some thoughts using a race for today. As I type this I do not know any scratches nor track conditions, but I am assuming the Big A will be off.

I am experimenting not only in learning RDSS, of which I recently started using, but also some factors that I normally do NOT regularly use.

Today's experiment: First Race at Aqueduct, at one mile for $10,000 claimers.

I started by doing something I never did in contender selection; there were 10 in the body and I sought 6 contenders (from my Phase III days I always did one-half number of horses in the field, plus one as my initial horses to rate). What I did was use the APV% and CR highlights for my six 'contenders', which I never did.

Using this blind method I come up with these initial six steeds:
#1 Curvature, #3 Sea of Trees, #5 Fregata, #6 Successful Affair, #7 Morine's Victory and #8 Friendly Pocket.

My quick comment on each.

Curvature (P)--I selected pace line 5 at this point because it was a race at Aqueduct going one mile over a muddy track;

Sea of Trees--makes second start in over 2 1-2 months. Was going backwards since being claimed and with all races poor except one, I threw horse out. And then there were five.

Fregata (E)--I selected last pace line when he won last race over two-weeks ago when claimed;

Successful Affair (P)--Used pace line 4 (140 days) in winning effort over muddy track going 1-turn mile;

Morine's Victory (EP)--has been sprinting and loves off track. I used 3rd race back as pace line which horse won, earning a good figure but is not his highest number.

Friendly Pocket (P)--used 2nd line back which was a win, but looks like horse that might not like the one-turn mile. Also, has the makings of a possible underlay.

I made the pace line selections in Original Screen tab and once that was done, clicked Adjustments. Then I went to the BL/BL tab and started my analysis of this race.

From top to bottom here is the order per the BL/BL:

Curvature (9-2 morning line odds), Morine (4-1), Friendly (7-2), Success (5-1), Fregata (6-1).

The last horse, Fregata, I hid, and then there were four.

With four contenders, the BL 'gap' widens considerably with Curvature and Morine over Friendly and Success by a wide margin.

Now, here is where I fiddled which caused me some agaita, which often happens to all horseplayers when they get cute.

Since using a pace line 5 races deep is NOT what I do or like, even if it could be justified, I decided to change Curvature's PL selection from 5-back to last race, a very close third place finish.

Curvature now drops from top of the heap to fourth of four in BL/BL. Please note, though, that the BL 'gap' between 1 and 4th place is quite narrow, unlike the iinitial BL/BL array.

I then unclicked Curvature's last race as my pace line and picked one from Belmont Park in Sept. 2008, a win, just to see what gives.

Guess what? Curvature becomes an outstanding pick, with so many one's across the BL/BL board it isn't funny ...

So, what am going to do?

Well, since it was an experiment and a learning lesson first and foremost, I'll just might skip the race, unless odds dictate some action, Regardless, if I do bet, my bets will center on both Morine and Curvature, first and foremost, one way or other.

It looks to me if I must bet, I am leaning to Morine's Victory because of some ancillary factors, such as:

Morine's Victory may be a slightly better bet odds-wise because he's been sprinting and people may shy away from that. But, Morine ranks first in some important factors of a winning stretch-out horse: hidden energy, factor X and entropy. Plus his %Med hits the winning profile at Aqueduct squarely on the button.

Curvature may be an underlay, even at 4-1 or so and might be a bit shorter with the good mud win and win last time out, but he's high on %Med....which might be a positive, but I am not so sure, personally, at this point in my learning process of RDSS. At 8-1 or more (unlikely) I might take a shot but not at 4-1.

The other two horses Friendly and Success will be used in my gimmicks on a smaller, saver scale.

I hope I didn't bore anyone to death and good luck.